Adaptive capacity, vulnerability and resilience of beneficiaries in managing Agro-Allied projects and interventions in Nigeria.

Abstract

This study, undertaken among 1544 farming households within 25 LGAs in 12 states of Nigeria, examined adaptive capacity, vulnerability, and resilience among beneficiaries of agricultural projects or interventions between 2005 and 2025. The results show that resilience is shaped primarily by human capital, infrastructure, market access, and service provision, while vulnerability consistently undermines outcomes. Adaptive capacity, both at household and project levels, emerges as the strongest pathway to improvement. The ordered logit model isolated two groups of covariates: those that gave consistent signals across the models and mixed or context specific effects. These findings are closely in line with regional and global evidence, reinforcing calls for building capacity first, then providing awareness within the context of the interventions. In addition, supported infrastructure, based on the beneficiaries’ capacities and awareness, would consolidate adaptive capacity and resilience to fight vulnerability. Policies that integrate education, extension services, and infrastructure development, while reducing vulnerability through risk management and diversification, offer the most promising route to long-term resilience. However, the study has shown that projects and intervention promoted in Nigeria in the last 25 years has not produced sustainable outcomes.