MATHEMATICAL MODELLING OF TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS OF ONCHOCERCIASIS

Abstract

In this paper, a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics and control of Onchocerciasis was developed incorporating the infectious but not blind and the infectious blind compartments. The model consisting of systems of coupled nonlinear ordinary differential equation are used to describe this spread. We obtain the effective reproductive number , and its values computed using five (5) different control strategies were carried out and result shows that although, a 60% treatment coverage rate of infectious but not blind and infectious blind individuals only is better than 80% treatment coverage rate of infectious but not blind individuals only. A 40% coverage rate of fumigation and treatment of infectious but not blind is better than a 40% coverage rate of fumigation only. Further analysis revealed that a 30% coverage rate of fumigation and treatment of infectious blind is better than 80% coverage rate of fumigation only or fumigation and treatment of infectious but not blind only. Also, sensitivity analysis was carried out with respect to the model parameter values to determine the relative importance of each model parameter on the transmission and control of onchocerciasis. From the result, effective fumigation rate has the highest sensitivity index followed by the effective contact rate while the negative sensitivity index is .