Spatial Analysis and Hotspot Detection of Firearm Data Reported in Abuja, Nigeria

Abstract

The increased availability of crime data in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja, has made firearms a major topic of debate and research. Improving the understanding of the factors that contribute to gun violence in Abuja is critical to law enforcement to abate violent crime. This study conducted a spatial analysis of firearm and crime management and other pertinent factors reported cases across FCT, Abuja, from 2020 to 2024. Applying data sourced from the Nigeria Police Force Headquarters, FCT command Abuja, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), and reports from Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs), the study examined the presence of spatial autocorrelation, determine whether firearm occurrences were statistically dependent on their geographic location, and detected statistically significant clusters of illegal firearm possession and recoveries over time using hotspot mapping methods. The result showed that FCT has an average of 2.80 firearm possession per theft involving a firearm. The result also revealed that firearm recoveries are close to where they were illegally possessed. Locally Made Guns (LMGs) were illegally possessed more than any other type of firearm and were more commonly used in the commission of crime in FCT. Furthermore, results from hotspot analyses of crime over time revealed that crime clustering varies dramatically from year to year. This research recommended that crime cases should be recorded in detail alongside geographical coordinates of the crime incidence spot so as to allow hotspot analysis at the spot level rather than the street level.