Modelling Intercity Trip Generation of Public Passenger Transport in Niger State, Nigeria

Abstract

The persistent growth in intercity travel demand across Niger State has not been matched by adequate transport services and infrastructure, leading to inefficient passenger movement, delays, and poor service delivery. Despite these challenges, there is limited empirical understanding of the factors influencing intercity trip generation, creating a need for a study that models the determinants of public passenger transport demand in the State. This study aims to identify demographic, socioeconomic, and transportation-related factors that influence the weekly travel frequency of public transport passengers in Niger State. Key variables examined include age, marital status, household size, educational level, car ownership, trip purpose, trip distance, and perceived insecurity, each measured through categorical proxies. A cross sectional survey research design was adopted, covering nine major cities: Minna, Bida, Kontagora, Suleja, Mashegu, Mokwa, Shiroro, New Bussa, and Lapai. Using Dillman's (2007) formula, a sample of 1,290 respondents was drawn from a population of 90,775 registered passengers with NURTW, RTEAN, and NSTA. Data were analysed using correlation and multiple linear regression, with diagnostic tests for multicollinearity (VIF < 10, Tolerance near 1). The regression model revealed an R² value of 0.967, indicating high predictive accuracy with statistically significant predictors (p < 0.001). The study concludes that demographic, socioeconomic, and transport-related factors strongly influence intercity trip generation in Niger State, providing an empirical basis for transport planning and policy. The study recommends that transport authorities should enhance safety and security, improve accessibility and convenience for key demographic groups and focus resources on the factors that most significantly influence intercity trip generation.