Sustainable Food Supply: The Interplay between Population Growth and Land Productivity Changes as a Pathway to 2030 and Beyond for Nigeria June 2024Asian Research Journal of Agriculture 17(2):414-423

Abstract

Food supply chains in fragile and semi-institutionalised economies continue to experience persistent instability driven by weak governance structures and recurring conflicts among market actors. However, despite extensive studies on food system challenges in Nigeria, there remains limited empirical understanding of how governance structures interact with conflict mitigation mechanisms to shape system stability at the local market level. Available literature tends to treat governance and conflict management as separate processes, thus overlooking their interdependent dynamics within everyday market operations. This study addresses this gap by examining governance structures and conflict mitigation strategies in food supply chains in Niger State, Nigeria. Anchored on Systems Theory, it conceptualises the food supply chain as an interconnected system where institutional arrangements, actor interactions, and structural constraints jointly determine stability outcomes. A mixed-methods design was adopted, involving survey responses from 361 participants selected using Krejcie and Morgan sampling technique, complemented by key informant interviews. Quantitative data were analysed using regression analysis, while qualitative data were thematically examined to enrich interpretation. Findings show that governance effectiveness is significantly shaped by rule clarity (β=0.421), dispute resolution mechanisms (β=0.389), and enforcement structures (β=0.268), while fairness of levies remains relatively weak. Conflict mitigation is largely driven by market associations (β=0.447) and dialogue processes (β=0.402), signifying strong reliance on informal institutions. However, structural factors such as price fluctuations (β=0.401) and competition intensify conflict occurrence, revealing systemic vulnerability beyond governance capacity. The research contributes theoretically by advancing a systems-based explanation of governance–conflict interdependence, empirically by demonstrating the dominance of informal institutions in stability formation, and policy-wise by stressing the need for transparent governance reform and integrated conflict management frameworks in food markets.