Demographic growth and Land use, Landcover change (LULC): A Nexus for sustainable urban planning of Federal Capital City (FCC) Abuja, Nigeria

Abstract

Rapid urbanization and industrialization in many developing countries often lead to considerable changes within urban areas, adversely affecting urban sustainability. Over the past forty years, the Federal Capital City (FCC), Abuja, and its surrounding towns have seen notable demographic growth due to heightened urbanization and industrialization. To propose sustainable urban planning, the impact of urbanization and demographic growth on green spaces must be assessed through change detection analysis. The change detection method used in this study is the ‘Area Analysis method’. This involves the analysis which highlights the transition trend of vegetated area to built-up area and bare surface over the period under assessment. The processes involved the geo-processing, which was selected, and the earlier periods of the year, and the observed change of each period of the year, i.e., 1985 to 2025, geometry were calculated and intersected to estimate the change area. After the process was done, the output was inferred according to the change that occurred. After the change detection was identified and extracted using spatial query operation. Therefore, LULC change analysis and transition probabilities provide strong evidence of FCC Urbanization trajectory, rapid expansion, environmental degradation, planned greening efforts, and continued pressure from urban growth. These patterns emphasize the importance of sustainable planning to protect remaining green spaces while accommodating inevitable urban development.