The Future of Autonomous Transportation: Opportunities and Challenges in Nigeria

Abstract

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are widely promoted as solutions to road safety challenges, congestion, and mobility inefficiencies, yet evidence on their applicability in African contexts remains limited. In Nigeria, persistent road traffic fatalities, chronic congestion, weak infrastructure, and regulatory gaps underscore the need for contextualised analysis linking AV adoption to local institutional, technological, and socio-cultural realities. This study examines the future of autonomous transportation in Nigeria, highlighting its opportunities, challenges, and policy implications. A descriptive research design was employed through a systematic review of literature from Scopus, ScienceDirect, SpringerLink, Google Scholar, and related repositories. Seventeen peer-reviewed studies published between 2010 and 2024 were selected using explicit inclusion and exclusion criteria and analysed through thematic synthesis. The analysis is anchored in the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) and Diffusion of Innovation (DOI) theory to explain user acceptance and system-level diffusion. Findings reveal that AV adoption in Nigeria is constrained by interconnected barriers, including inadequate road and digital infrastructure, high acquisition and deployment costs, regulatory and institutional gaps, cybersecurity risks, and low public trust. Nevertheless, significant long-term prospects exist for improving road safety, enhancing accessibility for vulnerable groups, reducing congestion, and stimulating smart mobility innovation if adoption follows a phased, context-sensitive pathway. The study concludes that AV deployment in Nigeria is less a technological challenge than an institutional and governance issue. It recommends targeted policy reforms, infrastructure investment, regulatory clarity, capacity building, and public engagement as prerequisites for successful integration, while providing policy-relevant insights for transport planning in developing economies.