An Evaluation of a Reservoir Elevation with Markov Model in Continuous Time

Abstract

A three-state Markov model in continuous time was used to study the reservoir elevation of a dam. A non-stationary transition probability was assumed for the process. The result indicates a maximum probability of 0.3 and 0.5 in about four years to have middle reservoir and upper reservoir elevation given that it is low reservoir elevation at present. The model could be used to make a forecast of the reservoir elevation of the dam in the future given the present reservoir elevation. The information could be used to plan for the maximum use of the dam resources such as the HEP generation, fresh water fishing and the cultivation of the dam basin for crop production.