http://irepo.futminna.edu.ng:8080/jspui/handle/123456789/121 2026-05-02T23:44:08Z http://irepo.futminna.edu.ng:8080/jspui/handle/123456789/29798 Title: Covariate Effect as an offset in Spatio-temporal Disease Mapping Modelling Authors: Abdullahi, U; Isah, A.; Rasheed, A. A. Abstract: This paper focuses on extending spatio-temporal model in disease mapping. The objective is to incorporate covariate variable as an offset to analyse rea-life data across state and health care areas. The method of generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) that followed a Poisson distribution and built within a Bayesian approach was used. Model fitting and inference were carried out using integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA), while deviance information criteria (DIC) were used to choose the best performing model. The performance of the proposed model compared to existing model was assessed using female breast cancer mortality data. Result revealed that the proposed model has the lowest DIC value of 1514.053 as against DIC value of 1514.407 for the existing model. The proposed model overcomes the usual model as measured by DIC for a difference of 0.354 (35%) which showed a significant improvement in the proposed model, The proposed model has yielded a classical methodology for assessing the risk variations in the state areas and their influence in health care areas on disease outcome. The study recommended that covariate variable such as age should be included as an offset in a spatio-temporal disease mapping modelling. 2024-04-22T00:00:00Z http://irepo.futminna.edu.ng:8080/jspui/handle/123456789/29797 Title: Application of Queuing Theory to Optimize Waiting-Time in Hospital Operations Authors: OKEMMIRI, Hillary Uche; Jibrin Abdullahi Yafu, Abdullahi Yafu; Abdullahi, Usman; S.amuel, M. Oguche Abstract: Waiting time is inherent to the healthcare service sectors in Nigeria and a major challenge faced by almost every big hospital is queuing. Long waiting time can be a reflection of inefficiency in hospital operations. The out-patient department (OPD) has the biggest queue as compared to other departments in hospital operations. This study comprises of in-depth analysis of OPD from different dimensions. Like in many big hospitals across Nigeria, the OPD of General Hospital in Minna Niger State, Nigeria is managed using experience and rule of thumb rather than strategic research-based techniques such as queuing theory. The General Hospital in Minna Niger State, receives a large number of patients each day which results in longer waiting time for patients due to long queues. To address the challenge, queueing model was design to identify the bottlenecks in service operations and potential areas for improvement in the system, with the objective of optimizing patients waiting time, thereby allowing a higher flow of patients in OPD using queuing model. The result from the multi- server model (m/m/s) shows that the probability of having zero patients in the queue at the OPD unit in the clinic is 0.71 (71%). This infers that the clinic experience constant queue each day. The average time spent in the system (𝑊𝑞) per patients is 30minute to 35 minute and the average service time in the system before leaving the clinic was estimated to be between 31minute to 40 minutes each day. The study recommends to the government authority to look into the factors that result in long queue and delay of patients at the OPD unit so as to resolve the increasing rate of queue and delay patients experience in the clinic before being attended to. 2024-04-22T00:00:00Z http://irepo.futminna.edu.ng:8080/jspui/handle/123456789/29648 Title: Effect of Cashless Policy on Gross Domestic Products in Nigeria: A Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) Approach Authors: OKEMMIRI, Hillary Uche; ibrin, Andulllahi Yafu; ABDULLAHI, USMAN; S, M Oguche Abstract: The study undertakes an econometric research to analyze the cashless policy and its effectiveness on Gross Domestic Products in Nigeria using quarterly data of 2019 to 2022. The vector Autoregressive model (VAR) was adopted to examine how automated teller machine (ATM), Point of sale (POS) and Internet banking (IB) had impacted on Nigeria GDP. Unit root test was carried out on each of the variables to determine their level of stationarity. They were however found stationary after first difference with the p- values less than 0.05 and then used for the regression analysis. And a Johanso test of cointigration was used to examine the short or long term influence of the cashless policies on GDP. In the VAR model result, the activities on automated teller machine (ATM) and point of sales (POS) has significant influence on Nigeria economic growth with their respective p-values less than 0.05 and R-Squares = 0.99. The result from the Johanson test of cointigration show that there is on cointigrating factor which infers a short-term influence. The study recommends that the use of ATM and POS should be much more encouraged in Nigeria, with proper awareness on its benefit. Also effective policy needs to be developed by the government through the CBN to ensure the effectiveness and efficiency of ATM and POS. 2024-04-22T00:00:00Z http://irepo.futminna.edu.ng:8080/jspui/handle/123456789/29551 Title: Comparison of Bayesian and Frequentist Approaches in Nominal Item Response Theory Modelling Authors: Adetutu, O. M. Abstract: The research utilized a non-linear regression model to quantify unobserved characteristics of candidates in examinations and their outcomes [1]. Performances of Bayesian over Frequentist approaches in estimating nominal item response theory model parameters P(y_ij=k│a_i,b_i,θ_j ) (exp⁡{a_ik (θ_j-b_ik)})/(=∑_(h=1)^4▒〖exp⁡{a_ih (θ_j-b_ih)}〗) □(, θ_j~ N(0,1)) [2]. Priors a_(ik )~ dnorm(m.a,pr.a)I(0,0), b_ik~dnorm(m.b,pr.b), m.a ~dnorm(0,0.1), m.b~dnorm(0,0.1) pr.a ~digamma(10,1) and pr.b~digamma(10,1) were used to determine the posterior densities and Brooks-Gelman-Rubin Convergence Diagnostic Statistic suggested 10000 updates to have valid estimates of the intended parameters in accordance to [4]. Findings revealed that Bayesian technique gave positives, and interpretable item discriminating parameters with relatively low standard errors, and more confined credible intervals for the parameters’ estimates in line with the principle of item response theory modelling [5]. Description: Comparison of Bayesian and Frequentist Approaches in Nominal Item Response Theory Modelling 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z